Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 34.473630 37.076905 39.917480 43.273235 47.164358 51.579046 57.033225
2025-10-19 30.996004 34.477250 38.521961 43.659060 50.151275 58.298360 69.685727
2025-10-26 28.693447 32.590621 37.303266 43.586055 52.026924 63.466273 81.194044
2025-11-02 26.695217 30.760639 35.816165 42.796853 52.618714 66.771907 90.744451
2025-11-09 25.048640 29.181314 34.432385 41.887020 52.778933 69.318084 99.699804
2025-11-16 23.771747 27.954115 33.367978 41.243796 53.151040 72.146585 110.001685
2025-11-23 22.661505 26.855862 32.370137 40.560444 53.317518 74.597130 120.459482
2025-11-30 22.247915 26.640235 32.536873 41.549015 56.190052 82.273322 145.972051
2025-12-07 21.493243 25.911380 31.925057 41.294273 56.964642 86.238265 165.107733
2025-12-14 20.616197 24.966396 30.942586 40.375552 56.473181 87.580404 177.911566
2025-12-21 19.846681 24.133045 30.071349 39.557627 56.053358 88.980562 192.156352
2025-12-28 19.709979 24.170873 30.460499 40.766401 59.431723 99.514503 251.380990
2026-01-04 19.437758 24.014746 30.569001 41.556902 62.223166 109.898336 334.542166
2026-01-11 19.069516 23.702800 30.422727 41.905352 64.212285 119.108151 446.245689
2026-01-18 18.630457 23.266252 30.057121 41.837728 65.331468 126.404615 589.096941
2026-01-25 18.069128 22.627775 29.345028 41.103448 64.928383 129.026465 709.039074
2026-02-01 17.518109 21.985211 28.597970 40.256019 64.178461 130.367886 837.610729
2026-02-08 17.055174 21.457665 28.009603 39.656318 63.913809 133.332575 1071.200190
2026-02-15 16.610700 20.943338 27.421024 39.018657 63.491239 135.680706 1396.155351
2026-02-22 16.521783 20.956024 27.671399 39.940947 66.823682 153.718748 6644.960340
2026-03-01 16.199958 20.605697 27.318626 39.703397 67.342358 160.997530 NaN
2026-03-08 15.770747 20.080319 26.661318 38.846032 66.224462 160.674051 NaN
2026-03-15 15.379274 19.602864 26.067580 38.081872 65.272294 160.890468 NaN